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☆ Why China's economy is doing better than people think
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewAlthough China looks dead-set on another year of economic distress, its prospects are brighter than they seem, a former advisor to the People's Bank of China wrote. For this reason, it helps that China's economy faces two-pronged deflation, with both consumer and producer price indices in the red, Yongding wrote. That means Beijing can inject considerable fiscal stimulus without concerns about inflation. According to Yongding, China's infrastructure is still behind in critical sectors, such as healthcare, education, and transportation.

Persons: —, Yu Yongding, Yongding Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China, Business, Project Syndicate, Monetary Locations: China, Beijing

☆ Exclusive: China govt advisers call for steady growth target in 2024, more stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Five of the seven advisers who spoke with Reuters said they favoured a target of around 5%, matching this year's goal. The proposals will be made next month at the ruling Communist Party's annual Central Economic Work Conference that discusses policy plans and the outlook for the world's second-largest economy. "We need to adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate aggregate demand," Yu Yongding, a government economist who advocates for a growth target of roughly 5%, told Reuters. "We are stepping up fiscal policy support," said another adviser, to make the "difficult" 2024 target "achievable." The stuttering post-COVID recovery has prompted many analysts to call for structural reforms that tilt the drivers of economic growth away from property and infrastructure investment and towards household consumption and market-allocation of resources.

Persons: Yu Yongding, Yu, Guan Tao, Xi Jinping, Kevin Yao, Marius Zaharia Organizations: Reuters, Communist, Economic Work Conference, BOC International, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, Beijing, outflows, Japan

☆ China weighs options to blunt U.S. sanctions in a Taiwan conflict
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Eduardo Baptista | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

"In the context of intensified Sino-U.S. strategic competition and the Taiwan Strait conflict, we should be wary of the U.S. replicating this financial sanction model against China," wrote Chen Hongxiang, a researcher at a branch of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in eastern Jiangsu province. Wang and several PBOC researchers wrote in articles that if the U.S. implemented Russia-style sanctions on China, Beijing should freeze U.S. investment and pension funds and seize the assets of U.S. companies. ENERGY AND ALLIANCESBesides financial sanctions, Russia's response to Western pressure on its oil, gas, metals, and chips industry has given food for thought to Chinese researchers. Chinese researchers also suggested Beijing exploit cracks within the European Union and between the U.S. and its allies. "The mutual penetration of the Chinese and American economies will inevitably weaken the willingness to impose financial sanctions," he wrote.

Persons: Thomas Peter, Chen Hongxiang, Xi Jinping, Yu Yongding, Yu, PBOC, Wang Yongli, Wang, Sun, Mou Lingzhi, Xia Fan, Ye Yan, Martin Chorzempa, Chorzempa, Chen, Eduardo Baptista, David Crawshaw Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Moscow, China, People's Bank of China, Reuters, Senior U.S, People's Liberation Army, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, China International Futures, U.S ., China Center for International Economic, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, China Minmetals Corporation, London Metals Exchange, Oil and Gas Exploration, Development Company, European Union, Peterson Institute for International Economics, EU, Thomson Locations: Fuzhou, Taiwan, Matsu, China, Rights BEIJING, Russia, Ukraine, Jiangsu, Beijing, Russian, U.S, Hainan, Washington, United States

☆ Analysis: China's economic woes embolden calls for deeper reforms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Both camps argue their proposals should be treated with urgency by policymakers, ahead of the annual Central Economic Work Conference, an agenda-setting gathering of top leaders expected in December. The pro-reform camp is beating the drum for faster structural reforms, including relaxing the system of residence permits, or "hukou", to spur consumption, removing market entry barriers for private firms at the cost of state giants. Reforms are urgently needed as growth engines such as property, exports and infrastructure are stalling, he said. Structural reforms with expansionary effects can also have immediate effects." TIGHTROPEDespite the heated debate, analysts expect Chinese leaders can walk a tightrope between stimulus and reforms.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Yu Yongding, Yu, Kristalina Georgieva, Liu Shijin, Liu, It's, Tao Wang, Deng Xiaoping, Yi Xianrong, Kevin Yao, Sam Holmes Organizations: Central Business, REUTERS, Economic Work Conference, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Fund, UBS, Asian Development Bank, Qingdao University, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, China's, United States

☆ China's economic woes embolden calls for deeper reforms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Structural reforms with expansionary effects can also have immediate effects." TIGHTROPEDespite the heated debate, analysts expect Chinese leaders can walk a tightrope between stimulus and reforms. Rob Subbaraman, chief economist at Nomura, said short-term stimulus would spur growth but at the cost of worsening structural distortions. Meanwhile, structural reforms would bring short-term pain and take longer to boost activity, but produce higher quality, sustainable growth over time. "China needs both, whereas it is where it is now because historically it's relied more on policy stimulus than on the harder structural reforms," he said.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Yu Yongding, Yu, Kristalina Georgieva, Liu Shijin, Liu, It's, Rob Subbaraman, Deng Xiaoping, Yi Xianrong, Kevin Yao, Sam Holmes Organizations: Central Business, REUTERS, Economic Work Conference, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Fund, Nomura, Asian Development Bank, Qingdao University, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, China's, United States

☆ China has an inflation problem. It’s way too low
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That’s raising the specter of a tailspin of falling prices and wages from which the economy may struggle to recover. “Our core view is that China’s economy is deflationary,” wrote Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ Research, last week, soon after China released its first-quarter GDP growth figures. Instead of spending money, people are hoarding cash at a record rate. “Even with a conservative estimate, 500 billion yuan in consumption vouchers will drive one trillion yuan in overall consumption, ” Li said in a video posted on his Weibo social media account on Tuesday. In return, the government could receive at least 300 billion yuan through taxes generated by the increase in spending, he said“So it only takes 200 billion yuan in spending for the central government to drive one trillion yuan in consumption,” he said.

☆ Exclusive: China increasingly ambitious with 2023 growth target, may aim for up to 6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Four of the sources said China was likely to aim for growth up to 6%, while three others said China was targeting 5%-5.5%. "This year's growth target could be 5-6%," said one of the people involved in the discussions. "We need to achieve an economic recovery, boost employment, and confidence, these are the key factors we need to consider." It was also the biggest ever miss of a growth target. Yu said a growth target of above 6% would help "boost morale and stimulate China's economic growth potential."

☆ Analysis: China c.bank to offer limited, targeted growth support, no bazooka
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Since 2020, when the world's second-largest economy was first jolted by the coronavirus, the PBOC has expanded its arsenal of structural policy tools, including relending and rediscount facilities and other low-cost loans. "The central bank is likely to expand the scope of structural policy tools and step up the use of such tools," said a person involved in policy discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity. Its outstanding loans made via structural tools amounted to nearly 5.6 trillion yuan ($781.64 billion) at the end of September, central bank data showed. A central bank adviser said last month that China should set a growth target no lower than 5% for next year. On Nov. 21, the central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a third straight month.

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